Friday, April 24, 2009

BGZ Stopped Out, New Trade Setting-Up

The BGZ trade was stopped out at 46.64 earlier today for a 4.29% loss. Hindsight is 20/20 and a little frustrating in this case, but small losses is the name of the game.

However, the short-term model for the S&P 500 is back approaching overbought, with the potential for the first overbought signal at a lower high than the previous signal since the March lows. So, a new trade may be signaled this afternoon. SDS or DXD will likely be the fund suggested.

I am still preferring to look for bearish set-ups based on intermediate term indicators suggesting excessive optimism. Also, the recent price activity where it has been 4 days trying to regain the losses of 1 day is indicative of a weakening up trend.



  1. hey pete,

    i won't make a habit of posting my trades here, but since this one was a loss on your blog, i thought you might like to know that i put a 1.5% trailing stop on bgz and got stopped out at 50.60 yesterday.

    i had been thinking about doing the trailing stop the night before after yesterday's 2 big moves. and with the big bgz move up at the close, i thought there might be another big move left to push s&p to around 855-860 today. and if there was, i really wanted to cash in that coin before there was a big push up to the s&p 'wall of resistance'. well, i had to suddenly step away from my desk yesterday and had about 60 seconds to decide if i wanted to change it to a trailing stop. i did.

    often i leave money on the table when i do this, but this time it seems to have worked out.

    as always, thanks.

  2. good job

    I had considered suggesting another breakeven stop yesterday morning while there was a little cushion.

    The nice thing is that it may be possible this afternoon to get back in at a better price.

    The set-up on the Dow looks pretty nice right now, if it doesn't go much higher this afternoon.