Friday, October 2, 2009

OEX Put/Call Ratio Chart

Click on Image to Enlarge

A reader had asked about where to find the OEX put/call ratio which I mentioned in a recent post. Each day you can find the data on CBOE.com under Daily Statistics for OEX (S&P 100) options. I typically just get the data from Sentimentrader.com which posts it in graphical form.

The image above is from Sentimentrader.com showing one of the ways they track the OEX put/call ratio. This chart is the daily raw data with standard deviation band around it to help filter out statistically meaningful data points. The highest spike on the chart just recently was the one I pointed out the other day.

While there is nothing necessarily magic, you can see that the very high spikes tend to occur at price peaks of some degree. Also, clusters of spikes tend to occur near intermediate term/multi week price peaks. To remove the "noise" they also post a chart with 5, 10, and 21 day moving averages. Also, they post a chart comparing the difference between the equity put/call ratio and the OEX ratio with the idea that a large spread between the values will occur at major inflections.

I tend to find the data more useful for market direction at market tops (OEX p/c spikes) probably due to the use of the options by smart traders to hedge in anticipation of price declines. The raw daily data doesn't seem to me to be as predictive for significant bottoms, but there are plenty of other data that meet that need.

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