Thursday, October 1, 2009

Watching Some Trendlines (S&P and LQD)

This chart is the S&P 500. The base trendline from the low in March to the July lows is being tested today. Barring a significant late day rally today, the close will be below the trendline. I do view this as important to watch and have highlighted it many times in posts.

This chart is LQD which is an ETF of high quality corporate bonds. It has trended tightly since the March low following the 20 day up. This could be used as a psychological benchmark regarding market opinion and confidence in corporate debt. Notice the large bearish candle today taking price well below the moving average and the base trendline since March. I view this as an important signal in terms of risk appetite. With the dollar strengthening and some trendline red flags in stocks and corporate bonds, it seems like signs of a shift toward risk aversion.

Also, the 21 and 34 day equity put/call moving averages have both turned back up as of yesterday. This shows a potential inflection in dumb money fear. As prices fall the fear starts to increase and the equity put/call averages rise.

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