Thursday, August 11, 2011

Gold Overbought at Resistance

Click on Chart to Enlarge

See notes on the chart. Gold is the most overbought on weekly and daily RSI in 3+ years. Prices are at the upper channel resistance going back 3 years. Don't know if this is a bull market top, but prices should back down soon. This will likely correspond to a sharp rebound in stocks.

Also long term US bonds are overbought. Looks like a time for intermediate term increasing stock exposure and back off bonds.

There is not good indication yet on the stock indexes that the trend has shifted to up. It looks from the shorter term pattern that we should see at least one more smaller pullback which does NOT make a new low, OR some further consolidation and a break to new lows. I would like the break to new lows because we could jump on any reversal candlestick and get in near the bottom of what I think will be a very swift rebound in stocks.

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