Thursday, August 18, 2011

Looking for US Dollar Index Bottom

Click on Chart to Enlarge

This is the UUP etf for the US Dollar Index. Notice the lower bollinger band has flat lined underneath the downtrend indicating a weakening trend. The bands have squeezed relatively tight which often happens before breakout moves. This week price had touched the lower band and has reversed higher, so the stage is set for a rally attempt. See the other notes on the chart as well.

If this index rallies we are likely to see weakness in commodities. I may recommend a commodity index short or inverse ETF trade.

As for the S&P 500, the upper bollinger band has now turned down with the lower band still pointing down indicating the configuration of a stable downtrend. Until the lower band turns up, the bollinger band suggests a continuing downtrend.

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