Thursday, November 3, 2011

Legs Down in the Last Two Bear Markets

2000-2002
-14.3% in 20 days
-18.4% in 111 days
-22% in 50 days
-29% in 122 days
-34.1% in 230 days
-20.7% in 49 days

2007-2009
-20% in 158 days
-48.6% in 186 days
-29% in 60 days

These are the legs down in the last 2 bear markets. A leg down is defined as any move down that does not have a 1 month (or more) low to high correction against the downward trend.

Notice that the typical leg down has been 2-5 months. Now when looking at bull market corrections they are more commonly 4-6 weeks in duration before a corrective low. So if the market is making a high in this area, then we may expect a downtrending move over the next 4 weeks or more.

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