Wednesday, November 9, 2011

SPY Pattern Projection

Click on Chart to Enlarge

After the brief 2-3 day decline from the Oct 27th high, SPY has rallied to a lower high over 5 days time. This makes the downward move more powerful and suggests that the market may move lower without toward last week's low before breaking the Oct 27th high. So the short term price logic is down. We are seeing about a 2% decline in the premarket futures right now, so a large gap down here will likely kick off a move that I would project should approximate the pink projection line as a normal mild bearish scenario. That would be typical for a "flat" abc correction off the Oct. 27th high.

Now, 2% gaps down are very often filled rather quickly, let's say within the next week or so. So, we may still see new highs for the rally or some chop at these levels if the market does come back and fill the gap down.

My plan is to exit the open SDS trade at the next oversold signal on 60 min stochastics.

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