Thursday, August 14, 2014

FL Dual Time Frame Put Option Set-Up

Click on Chart to Enlarge

This is a daily chart of FL, Foot Locker.  Notice the daily stochastics in the overbought position at a lower high and the more time consuming and overlapping rally off the 7-17-14 low, in comparison to the prior decline off the high.  This creates a nice price logic set-up for a short sale or put option trade.  Now let's move down to an hourly chart to focus in on a trade entry for the set-up

Click on Chart to Enlarge

This hourly chart shows a recent momentum peak at the upper end of the recent range of the momentum indicator.  Now we are seeing price to push to higher highs, but the momentum indicator is reaching a lower peak.  The indicates a slowing down of the current action, with the distinct possibility the price will soon reverse to the downside.  So from this point, on a trading basis, an objective method is needed to enter, or simply enter during the divergence and place a stop above the resistance level which would be the highest point on the chart.

HOWEVER, the earnings release is next week, and so the potential exists for a significant gap or price movement.  So in this situation my reasoning is that making a trade just before earnings is essentially a gamble, and if the earnings moves the stock up rather than down as the technical analysis suggests to me here, then I basically have a coin flip in risk versus reward by shorting the stock.

But in terms of options, if price moves up and no significant decline materializes, the max loss is 100% of the option value, but if earnings comes out with a gap down and break of the recent July support, the option could very reasonably move 200-300% or even more over the next couple weeks.  So in this situation I am electing to try to purchase a put option as prices hit this resistance area, with the reasonable probability of a 3:1 reward versus risk on a Sept 50 put option.

I currently have an order to buy the put at a limit of 1.40.  The spread is about 0.20 on the option, and it appears that price would have to move another 20-30 cents up before the order would fill.

Please note that this is for education, and that you will lose 100% of the money in this trade if the trade is not successful.

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