Thursday, December 11, 2014

Short Term Stock Market Update

So far on this small decline the last few days, there has not developed a bullish divergence of the type that typically leads to a bottom.  So I expect at least modest further declines here.  My general feeling is that stocks will continue to move at least modestly lower into next week's FOMC announcement at which point the stage may be set for a bounce from oversold conditions at least temporarily.

I may post signals of my personal trading system if any are generated in the next few days.

Also I would like to get a post up regarding some longer term cycles at play here.  But in short the 5th year of a decade, and the current portion of the presidential cycle are both historically bullish.  So while the technical aspect of the market is once again at a multiple time frame bearish divergence indicating a probable correction or consolidation, if prices break to yet higher highs later this month or into next year, it may be that price will enter a very directional period of market gains.

But without getting too far ahead of our selves, the first thing to watch for at this point is a daily reversal bar and also the development of shorter time frame bullish divergences (hourly, 30 min, etc) on SPY or other index ETFs.

1 comment:

  1. The FIIs were net buyers of Rs -808.27 cr in the cash segment on Thursday while the DIIs were net sellers of Rs. 431.93 cr, as per the provisional figures released by the NSE.
    NSE Stock Market Tips