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This table looks at previous instances of days when SPY gapped down 2% and then closed down greater to or equal than 3%. Data goes back 20 years and does not include August of this year (which wouldn't change it).
What we see is consistent/profitable bullish opportunities on average. In this case, the stats look at a 5 days hold, which is the maximum closing return on average. 77% close higher 5 days later, with the average gainer up more than 4%. The average total expected value, including the losers, is 2.7%.
The few instances that were losers were basically in the waterfall declines preceding sharp bounces. So they still had 3-8 days before bottoming out in the short term and putting in a sharp rally.
So the stats here don't add that much to the earlier post. If tomorrow gaps down, I would expect an even stronger stat profile, but obviously instances are getting fewer as well.
Again this is short term info in the context of a probable continuing downtrend.
Pete
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