Thursday, September 3, 2015

SPY Call Option Profit Limit Hit Today

Basis the SPY Sept 11 192 strike call from Tuesday's closing price, the 70% limit order was hit today.  So the trade is closed as far as my recommendation and tracking here on the blog.

I think a nice put/short opportunity will arise if price is able to push back up above today's highs with in the next couple days.   If price rallies modestly tomorrow, I may enter a bearish option position going into the weekend.

From the stats posted earlier this week about 3% down days, there was a clear tendency for a short term rebound, but the future returns turned overall negative as time moved forward.  And at 3 weeks out, the average closing price was about 4% lower than the average close 1 week out.  So since price has rallied a bit already, it would seem that looking out a couple weeks, we could see a pull back.  That is totally in line with the closest historical fits from the charts, and is backed up by the objective historical stats.


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