Friday, October 3, 2008

SDS Update

Today the House votes on the revised "bailout" plan. While speculation on these types of things isn't the norm for me, my guess is that it will not pass, or that the market will respond unfavorably to all the baggage in the bill.

There are a couple scenarios I think could play out here. As far as exiting the SDS trade from last week, the short-term model is not oversold yet. If today is a huge down day after all the news comes out, I would suggest exiting right before the close today. I'm sure the model will be oversold or very near it if that happens. I can't always immediately post when the model hits an extreme, so that is my suggestion. Also, because the potential exists of news sparking a positive market days of large proportions, I would suggest putting a breakeven stop loss order in on the trade early today for protection.

Looking ahead to the next few days, think a significant shift is going to occur in the market trend for at least several weeks. This is based off of past "post crash" market scenarios. Typically it results in upward biased choppy price movement, which should be great for the methodology of the trades I post on this blog.

Pete

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