Thursday, October 9, 2008

SSO Trade Update

I entered SSO today for an average price of 33 dollars and change on a limit order. The market blew past that a ways.

The only real consolation for this large intra-trade drawdown is that the upthrust after comparable historical periods tends to be very strong (about 10-15% on the SPY ETF) over the next week or two. There still exists a reasonable chance that the SSO trade will be profitable at the next overbought signal.

For someone who is not in the trade yet, I would still get into it. The model dipped back to oversold today. Despite palpable fear and perceived risk, these types of market moves have led to the biggest short-term gains historically.

I put about 25% of my account funds into SSO today. I would not advise putting a whole lot more than that. The time to starting increasing exposure is when the market has clearly turned, and then you get an oversold signal at a much higher bottom than is occurring now.

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