Sunday, October 10, 2010

Bearish Gartley Pattern on SPX @ 1175

As of right now with the SPX pushing above the 1160 level, I would expect a move to 1175 before any reversal down. The 78.6% retracement of the entire April-July correction is at 1175 and the high of the bounce after the "flash crash" is at 1174ish. This is somewhat compelling in that most Elliott wave enthusiasts seem to believe that the move down from April to July 2010 was a "leading diagonal" in Elliott Wave Principle parlance. According to the experts, a leading diagonal is often retraced 78.6%. Even if the market does not top at that level, I would be somewhat surprised if it doesn't oblige or entice sellers at least temporarily at that level.

Also the market right now is in the wide price range of the mini crash in 2008 on the day of Lehman bankruptcy (Sept 29 2008). So I think this area (1100-1200) is a key level for the market. If the market pushes to new highs (above the April 2010 highs) then it would seem to me that the market accepts that those issues are behind us.

As of now there is no reversal candlestick pattern on the daily or weekly chart of the S&P 500. So for intermediate term bets to the downside, it would be nice to see something along those lines.

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