Tuesday, October 19, 2010

USD Index Reversal Pattern

Click on Chart to Enlarge

Today the US Dollar Index provided several significant cues that it is making a trend reversal.

-made a bullish MACD cross on the daily chart
-formed a bigger white candlestick than any since the decline began in June
-the % advance is significantly larger than any any since the August top suggesting a new leg up has begun

Again the intermarket correlations suggest that the US stock market will likely decline if the US dollar does continue to rise. I think we will see a significant correction in stocks.

If the S&P 500 falls to 1154 or lower, that should be 1.2 times larger than the biggest decline since Sept. That would be good confirmation that a correction is underway in stocks.

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