Brief Update and a Request

I would like to post a video update this weekend.  There are many markets that are in significant positions right now, and I may have some unique analysis on some different markets.  I feel there is too much to cover it all in a detailed coherent fashion, so if there are any markets that any readers really would like an update or my analysis on, please comment or reply and I will try to accommodate.

For a brief overview of equities, the equity put/call ratio spiked to 0.99 on Friday.  The 10 day average is at the historically high end of its range suggesting excessive bearish sentiment and a likely sharp rebound in the cards.  But again, this move is unfolding with volatility expansion and is turning parabolic to the downside.  So until the market is ready for the rebound, the price declines are likely to be successively bigger, and may include a large gap down to exhaust the move or prior to exhaustion.  I think it is somewhat unique that despite the last 4 days basically closing at or below the lower bollinger band and 6 days down in a row, we have not seen much downside gapping.  The last 3 days gapped up.  I think it is likely that we see a large gap down in this move before the rebound occurs.

The number or new lows is expanding but not yet at panic selling levels, typical of corrective bottoms.  The McClellan Oscillator is very low showing breadth at an extremely low level.  The point of the most extreme reading is often not the end of the move.  Usually after an extreme reading there is a counter trend move followed by a move to new price extremes for the trend.  Major price moves, typically end after a nice divergence develops.  We have yet to see that here, so swing trading focus should remain to the downside.

The tide is turning down here in equities, so these extreme pessimistic readings are likely to lead to rallies to lower highs in the context of a downtrend.