Gold Breakdown Close at Hand?

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This chart is continuous gold prices.  I had recently highlighted the weekly potential bullish reversal off the lower bollinger band, but noted that I believe it is unlikely to lead to a legitimate leg up.  The action since then has further supported that view.

Looking at the chart, notice that the bollinger bands are expanding as price is testing a repeatedly touching the lower weekly band.  A close below the lower band with the bands expanding would again imply a sharp downward move to come, with the minimum target being to around 1300.  That would also be the first major support level below current levels.  That was the beginning of the last leg up of the bull market.  We may expect a break down to that level rapidly and then a rebound attempt possibly.

Any close below 1523 in gold would be a bearish breech of support and likely lead to a continuation move down rather than a return to the range.

The Euro is already oversold and has met the minimum downside target I projected in April.  However, major support is broken there as well, and a break down in gold would imply a continued spike up in the US Dollar and plunge in the Euro.

Also, as noted stocks have potentially completed a small counter trend correction and could be forming a bearish flag pattern implying a strong move down in coming weeks.

There is no convincing evidence in my mind at this point that this rebound is likely to continue much further.  The only major evidence is the elevated put/call ratio, but the rebound so far has been weak given past precedents.  I continue to view the intermediate trend as down in stocks.