Tuesday, May 22, 2012

Possibly Very Bearish Portion of Pattern Ahead

Click on Chart to Enlarge

World markets are potentially entering a very bearish portion of the wave progression in Elliott wave terms.  Many European markets are weaker than the US, but all are correlated and will move together.  The above chart is of EWG which is the German stock market ETF.  It shows a beautiful classic Elliott wave pattern forming which suggests that the German market may be early in the third wave of a large wave C or 3 down from the 2007 highs.  The move from May-Oct 2008 would be a corresponding wave 3 of similar degree, so that would be the type of move to expect here.  Obviously we remember how dramatic that was.  In this case, the wave 1 down from the 2011 highs was a lot bigger than the wave 1 down off the 2007 highs.  That suggests this downward wave has more power, and we may expect the 3rd wave down to also be larger and more aggressive than the corresponding move in 2008 which was enormous historically already.

I will try to show a bunch of charts in an upcoming video, but there are widespread bearish chart patterns and wave progressions all around the world.

Click on Chart to Enlarge

This chart is a SPY hourly chart.  Based off the price logic that I use, I view the downtrend to have started from the May 1st high.  The initial move down looked impulsive indicating a possible wave 1 down.  The action to follow has been controlled to the downside, not typical of a wave 3.  Based on the price logic of wave 2 being required to take more time than wave 1, it would indicate that wave 2 has not completed prior to today, though it may have completed today.  This price pattern would logically imply a huge downward move to come starting very soon.  A counter trend correction that actually drifts WITH the trend (a running correction) implies a very powerful move to come.  Also, wave 3 should be at a minimum 1.618 the size of the next largest wave.  So we could be looking at a MINIMUM of 10% down from here, but likely a good bit more than that given the running correction for wave 2.

While this is all speculative now, the logic fits on multiple time frames, and because the move is so dramatic, I want readers to be alert to be positioned SHORT, or on the sidelines ASAP.

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