Friday, May 4, 2012

Oil Update

Click on Chart to Enlarge

This is a USO daily chart.  The blue rising trendline is set to be broken with a gap down today.  Trendline breaks with gap downs are often very significant.  Still many times there may be a backtest of the trendline, but this could likely be the signal that oil is set for a deep decline.  I would guess a rapid move down to the December lows which is the first major support.

Check out the ADX and bollinger band set-up on this.  I have talked about this before.  The daily ADX has been < 20 for about 6 weeks and the bollinger bands are squeezed tight.  An opening gap down with a close below the lower band with the bands expanding often leads to an explosive though often short term (1-2 weeks) move down.

Note the daily stochastics is also just turning down from overbought.  All in all a nice short/put option set-up.

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