Tuesday, October 21, 2014

SPY Short Trade Set-up

Click on Charts to Enlarge

The top chart here is a 30 min chart of SPY.  The MACD is elevated as price is reaching the 191 area that I have highlighted in recent posts.  I view this level as a shorting set-up and may track some trades here based upon short term technicals and real money sentiment.

The second chart is the VIX on an hourly time frame.  The set-up here would be for the VIX to touch the lower 20 period bollinger band which would be an indication of a potential short term extreme to act upon in contrarian fashion, assuming the larger trend is down, or that a retest of the recent low will occur.  The best set-ups occur when price pushes higher but the VIX fails at least in a very minor way to continue lower as price moves higher.

The bottom chart is the total put/call ratio on an hourly time frame.  Again a move outside the lower bollinger band here would be a possible short term topping signal, though it won't necessarily mark the precise high.

Prices are set to gap up here, and in my opinion a short position at the open would be a reasonable play.  If I go in here it will likely be with SPXU and without a stop on the position.  I will wait for an opposite extreme to develop and exit or place stops when that occurs.

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