Tuesday, June 28, 2016

Major Flip Flop In Strategy Based on Today's Action in SPY

Today the VIX dropped over 20%.  This has only happened 9 other times going back to September 1995.  The forward results showed a very strong negative skew even in the short term of 3 days.  That was slightly lopsided by a couple massive downers in October 2008, but looking ahead 2 weeks, 7 out of the 9 showed greater max losses than max gains.

So the point here is that we have the conflicting study from the last couple days, which suggested a rebound (which we saw already in some significant measure today) that may last several days.  And now we have information suggesting that there is risk of immediate downside with 6 out of 9 instances closing lower 3 days ahead.

So if a call option was established with the expiration at this weekend, my current recommendation would be to exit ASAP, like at the open tomorrow.

I may provide stats on a possible put option trade if the rebound extends further from this level.


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