Thursday, June 16, 2016

Rebound Suggested After the Open Today in SPY

In follow up to the information I posted yesterday, going back to late 1995 there were 44 instances where there were specifically 5 closes down in a row.  And only 12 of them showed a gap down the following day.  But the average open to close return on that day (today in our case) was 1.2% which is huge for these types of stats.

Now our environment is lower volatility, and I don't really expect to see that kind of a gain, but the suggestion here is that things are likely overdone in the short term, and multiday rebound is likely.

The 12 instances with gap downs showed about 2.25% return in SPY over the next 5-6 trading days.
Again our volatility is a little lower than others in this batch, but it makes sense that we could see a rebound into next week.


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