Thursday, September 22, 2011

CRB Commodity Index Update

Click Chart to Enlarge

Everything has suggested to me that commodities would continue lower after the last rally, and that was confirmed today. The CRB Index is now at channel support, but I don't think it will hold. I think it will break that channel and trade underneath it.

Based on the time of the prior moves the purple line is my best projection of when this next move down is likely to bottom. This shows up as late October, which coincides with some of the other cycles I've mentioned in prior posts. The green lines are the next chart supports which may be basing or rallying areas.

The sharp move up in bonds this week may be either a continuation or an exhaustion move given the large gap up today. Bonds paused but did not rally at the time area that I suggested in a recent post, and they are trading inversely to stocks and commodities for the most part. So I don't have a great independent analysis on this right now. Just watch the weekly technical indicators and candlesticks for signs of reversal to indicate a top.

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