Wednesday, September 14, 2011

S&P 500 Consolidation Near Completion

Click on Chart to Enlarge

Because of the price and time relations of the recent overlapping consolidation in the S&P 500, the logic I use for pattern interpretation suggests that IF last Thursday's high is not exceeded tomorrow, then the recent 3 days move down will not be retraced faster than it took to form. That would continue to suggest weakness ahead in stocks. As it stands since the Aug 9th low, the LARGER moves have been upward, but the two downward "x" moves have been FASTER and have NOT been retraced in less time than they took to form. So the strength of the market still seems to be in the downside based on the idea that the direction of trend is the direction in which the market is making both larger and faster moves.

The projection I made in the last post suggested the S&P 500 should approach 1200 and the declining red resistance line by tomorrow/Thursday. Also, if an upward pattern is completing here, it would be ideal if price did NOT exceed last Thursday's high. It slightly exceeded 1200 today, so that projection has been met, but tomorrow could be somewhat decisive.

Basically I am viewing the move up since last week's low as an upward flat pattern. If this is correct, it should complete in the next day or so, and be followed by a move back below the low of the pattern in less time than this last little leg up took to form (say 3-4 days).

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